Betting Lines
| Spread | BYU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UCF +188 BYU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BYU +5 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | BYU -9.4 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BYU -5.0 (+0.0) | 141.3 (-20.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BYU -5.6 (+0.6) | 141.4 (-20.4) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BYU -5.9 (+0.9) | 142.7 (-21.7) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BYU -4.9 (-0.1) | 142.7 (-21.7) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | UCF 97 – 84 BYU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BYU 81 – 75 UCF |
| Mar 13, 2024 | BYU 87 – 73 UCF |
| Feb 14, 2024 | BYU 90 – 88 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-8 | 16-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#66) | 21.3 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#75) | 2.21 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#82) | 2.87 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#82) | 0.580 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 43.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 2.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 79.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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