We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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43–14 on winners spread MAE 9.9 57 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida Atlantic @ Tulane -6.1 159.2 23% 85–84 ✓
William & Mary @ Hampton -2.1 146.8 33% 73–61 ✓
Stony Brook @ Towson +5.3 133.3 74% 64–73 ✓
Monmouth @ UNC Wilmington +7.4 142.8 78% 56–69 ✓
Hofstra @ Northeastern -3.6 137.7 43% 68–71 ✗
Elon @ Charleston +14.5 155.1 89% 62–80 ✓
Drexel @ North Carolina A&T -13.1 141.8 16% 67–63 ✓
Delaware @ Campbell -7.4 134.7 23% 68–62 ✓
Michigan @ Maryland +3.3 141.9 75% 57–64 ✓
VMI @ Chattanooga +11.4 148.3 87% 61–109 ✓
South Alabama @ James Madison +13.5 156.0 86% 55–89 ✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia State +5.7 150.3 75% 70–77 ✓
App State @ Coastal Carolina -8.1 145.2 21% 70–45 ✓
UMBC @ Vermont +14.5 150.8 87% 72–77 ✓
Binghamton @ Bryant +6.3 152.8 76% 69–77 ✓
New Mexico State @ Florida International +2.2 143.6 62% 67–77 ✓
Seattle U @ UT Rio Grande Valley -8.7 145.3 26% 80–81 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Samford +8.1 150.1 76% 70–79 ✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas City +2.3 140.3 54% 92–91 ✗
South Dakota State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +4.0 129.8 66% 81–80 ✗
North Dakota @ Omaha +4.0 139.9 72% 61–79 ✓
South Dakota @ Oral Roberts +10.4 150.9 82% 66–84 ✓
Utah Valley @ UT Arlington +0.9 139.5 51% 69–83 ✓
Western Illinois @ UT Martin +2.2 151.9 44% 73–64 ✗
Southern Indiana @ SIU Edwardsville +6.8 134.5 75% 64–67 ✓
Lindenwood @ Southeast Missouri State +2.0 140.6 55% 74–68 ✗
Morehead State @ Eastern Illinois -5.2 133.3 26% 78–52 ✓
Jackson State @ Alabama State +2.1 143.7 60% 73–63 ✗
Southern Miss @ UL Monroe -3.9 138.9 29% 71–58 ✓
Texas State @ Arkansas State +4.9 140.8 71% 82–85 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Central Arkansas -4.6 147.5 28% 86–63 ✓
Bellarmine @ North Alabama +4.5 143.8 73% 53–69 ✓
Michigan State @ Illinois +6.1 149.2 74% 68–71 ✓
UCLA @ Utah +11.1 138.9 84% 44–90 ✓
Radford @ Longwood +6.4 135.5 71% 69–58 ✗
Alcorn State @ Alabama A&M +2.1 153.3 53% 74–71 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Utah Tech -4.4 149.3 42% 70–75 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Grand Canyon +16.1 150.8 88% 64–74 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Middle Tennessee -9.5 128.9 18% 60–52 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Davis +1.5 144.4 63% 75–95 ✓
Weber State @ Sacramento State -9.8 133.9 18% 69–71 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Montana State +6.3 142.1 74% 50–79 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Montana +6.7 153.8 75% 98–92 ✗
Gonzaga @ Santa Clara -4.2 148.3 31% 76–77 ✗
San Francisco @ San Diego -10.1 137.3 20% 83–63 ✓
Pacific @ Pepperdine +10.7 142.8 86% 78–93 ✓
Tarleton State @ California Baptist +0.9 130.8 52% 63–77 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC San Diego +4.1 150.2 70% 74–88 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Riverside +7.4 136.9 79% 56–71 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Santa Barbara +9.2 139.2 83% 64–66 ✓
Idaho State @ Portland State +7.1 137.0 77% 69–63 ✗
Arizona State @ Washington +6.7 149.7 73% 67–82 ✓
Stanford @ Oregon State -0.8 144.7 50% 88–84 ✓
Portland @ Saint Mary's +19.7 133.0 89% 52–95 ✓
UC Irvine @ Hawai'i -3.0 137.6 40% 60–50 ✓
Cleveland State @ Milwaukee +0.4 154.0 55% 80–88 ✓
Minnesota @ Indiana +2.2 144.6 62% 62–74 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.