Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | PEPP -1000 PAC +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +15 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -16.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+28.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -10.7 (+4.3) | 142.8 (+28.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -11.0 (+4.0) | 142.7 (+28.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -11.8 (+3.2) | 142.3 (+28.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -11.8 (+3.2) | 144.1 (+26.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | PAC 92 – 59 PEPP |
| Jan 5, 2026 | PAC 74 – 69 PEPP |
| Jan 26, 2025 | PEPP 60 – 44 PAC |
| Jan 5, 2025 | PEPP 87 – 70 PAC |
| Mar 7, 2024 | PEPP 102 – 43 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 0-16 |
| Home | 9-8 | 5-12 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L23 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 81.4 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#225) | -15.2 (#354) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#280) | -1.73 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#267) | -2.37 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#295) | 0.399 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 27.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 18.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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