Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | STMN -110 SDST +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +1 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | STMN -6.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (+26.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -4.0 (-5.0) | 129.8 (+31.2) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -5.4 (-6.4) | 133.2 (+27.8) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -6.4 (-7.4) | 134.3 (+26.7) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -5.1 (-6.1) | 130.0 (+31.0) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | STMN 80 – 67 SDST |
| Feb 5, 2026 | STMN 77 – 62 SDST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | STMN 74 – 69 SDST |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SDST 102 – 86 STMN |
| Jan 9, 2025 | STMN 73 – 72 SDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 12-4 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#124) | 0.8 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#154) | -0.26 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#142) | -0.19 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#186) | 0.491 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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