Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | UCR -500 CP +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +15 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -7.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -7.4 (+7.6) | 136.9 (-9.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -4.7 (+10.3) | 136.2 (-9.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -4.3 (+10.7) | 137.8 (-10.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -4.7 (+10.3) | 138.8 (-11.8) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | CP 94 – 87 UCR |
| Dec 7, 2025 | UCR 88 – 84 CP |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CP 96 – 83 UCR |
| Feb 22, 2025 | CP 112 – 100 UCR |
| Feb 2, 2025 | UCR 80 – 62 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 0-20 |
| Home | 10-5 | 3-11 |
| Away | 4-12 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L20 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#264) | -9.3 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#282) | -1.51 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#266) | -2.06 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#279) | 0.402 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.4% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 32.5% |
Game Analysis
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