Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | ORST +163 STAN -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +4 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | STAN -1.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (+24.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORST -0.3 (-4.3) | 144.8 (+27.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -0.8 (-3.2) | 144.7 (+27.3) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -0.8 (-3.2) | 147.8 (+24.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -0.3 (-3.7) | 146.2 (+25.8) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2024 | ORST 85 – 73 STAN |
| Mar 3, 2023 | STAN 83 – 60 ORST |
| Jan 20, 2023 | STAN 67 – 46 ORST |
| Feb 13, 2022 | STAN 76 – 65 ORST |
| Feb 27, 2021 | ORST 73 – 62 STAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 1-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#163) | 5.4 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#156) | 0.31 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#155) | 0.67 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#157) | 0.513 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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