Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | ORST +155 STAN -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +23 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | STAN -3.8 (-19.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.5 (+15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -3.1 (-19.9) | 132.0 (+11.0) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -4.9 (-18.1) | 129.4 (+13.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -3.3 (-19.7) | 131.7 (+11.3) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -3.4 (-19.6) | 133.2 (+9.8) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2024 | ORST 85 – 73 STAN |
| Jan 12, 2024 | STAN 88 – 84 ORST |
| Jan 20, 2023 | STAN 67 – 46 ORST |
| Feb 13, 2022 | STAN 76 – 65 ORST |
| Feb 27, 2021 | ORST 73 – 62 STAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-7 | 9-6 |
| Away | 1-10 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.5 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#202) | 5.9 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#218) | 0.05 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#223) | 0.35 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#289) | 0.468 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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