Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | UVM -2000 UMBC +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +5 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -17.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.1 (-8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -14.5 (-9.5) | 150.8 (-1.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -12.1 (-7.1) | 150.7 (-1.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -13.6 (-8.6) | 150.9 (-1.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -13.3 (-8.3) | 150.7 (-1.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | UMBC 74 – 59 UVM |
| Feb 19, 2026 | UMBC 75 – 62 UVM |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UVM 64 – 55 UMBC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UVM 79 – 69 UMBC |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UMBC 80 – 63 UVM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 6-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 6-9 |
| Away | 10-4 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.8 | 81.2 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#128) | -11.2 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#104) | -2.59 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#104) | -3.18 (#344) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#109) | 0.341 (#362) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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