Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | IU -200 MINN +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +12 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | IU -0.4 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -2.2 (+9.8) | 144.6 (-8.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -1.5 (+10.5) | 144.5 (-8.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -1.4 (+10.6) | 145.3 (-9.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -1.2 (+10.8) | 145.0 (-9.0) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | IU 77 – 47 MINN |
| Dec 4, 2025 | MINN 73 – 64 IU |
| Dec 9, 2024 | IU 82 – 67 MINN |
| Mar 7, 2024 | IU 70 – 58 MINN |
| Jan 26, 2023 | IU 61 – 57 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 12-5 | 16-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#117) | 7.0 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#64) | 1.17 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#70) | 1.65 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#44) | 0.523 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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