Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | IU -520 MINN +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +15 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | IU -15.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (+11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -11.9 (+3.1) | 136.8 (+12.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -10.8 (+4.2) | 134.3 (+14.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -11.1 (+3.9) | 138.3 (+10.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -11.0 (+4.0) | 138.4 (+10.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | IU 77 – 47 MINN |
| Dec 4, 2025 | MINN 73 – 64 IU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | IU 70 – 58 MINN |
| Jan 12, 2024 | IU 74 – 62 MINN |
| Jan 26, 2023 | IU 61 – 57 MINN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-9 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#48) | 0.3 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#59) | 0.28 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#64) | 0.53 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#41) | 0.494 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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