He took it all too far, but boy could he play guitar. "Ziggy Stardust" - David Bowie
Conference USA · Murphy Center · January 12, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread LT -6.5 Away covered
O/U 129.5 Under
Money MTSU +210 / LT -275
Model Predictions
Spread Total MTSU win
Actual LT +8 112 Lost
Massey LT -10.0 (+2.0) — —
Massey Totals — 122.3 (-10.3) —
Bradley-Terry — — 24% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 15% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ LT -9.5 (+1.5) 128.9 (-16.9) 18% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML LT -10.4 (+2.4) 128.0 (-16.0) 18% ✓
Baseline ML LT -10.7 (+2.7) 130.0 (-18.0) 16% ✓
Baseline Plus ML LT -11.1 (+3.1) 131.2 (-19.2) 17% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 12, 2026 LT 80 – 69 MTSU
Jan 15, 2026 LT 59 – 58 MTSU
Jan 3, 2026 MTSU 88 – 51 LT
Mar 14, 2025 MTSU 77 – 75 LT
Feb 21, 2025 LT 85 – 74 MTSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MTSU LT
Overall 14-19 22-10
Conference 7-9 12-4
Home 11-6 14-2
Away 1-10 8-7
Neutral 2-3 0-1
Last 5 1-4 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 64.4 72.1
Avg Pts Against 71.3 65.6
Massey -7.8 (#300) 6.2 (#88)
Bradley-Terry -1.16 (#281) 0.73 (#116)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.22 (#265) 1.30 (#97)
RPI 0.426 (#303) 0.551 (#95)
Shooting & Four Factors MTSU LT
FG% 39.4% 42.7%
3PT% 26.7% 34.9%
REB / G 34.1 39.5
OREB / G 10.9 11.8
AST / TO 0.68 0.96
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 44.5% 49.3%
TOV% 20.4% 19.0%
ORB% 29.7% 32.9%
FT Rate 20.0% 29.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.4% 45.9%
Opp TOV% 16.9% 16.1%
DRB% 70.0% 73.0%
Opp FT Rate 18.4% 23.2%

Game Analysis

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