Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | MTSU +210 LT -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +8 | 112 | Lost |
| Massey | LT -10.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -9.5 (+1.5) | 128.9 (-16.9) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -10.4 (+2.4) | 128.0 (-16.0) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -10.7 (+2.7) | 130.0 (-18.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -11.1 (+3.1) | 131.2 (-19.2) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | LT 80 – 69 MTSU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | LT 59 – 58 MTSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | MTSU 88 – 51 LT |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MTSU 77 – 75 LT |
| Feb 21, 2025 | LT 85 – 74 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 12-4 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#300) | 6.2 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#281) | 0.73 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#265) | 1.30 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#303) | 0.551 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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