Why don't you get back into bed. "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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84–31 on winners spread MAE 8.6 115 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Rice @ South Florida +8.0 143.7 82% 73–81 ✓
Dayton @ Duquesne -2.6 138.4 36% 72–62 ✓
Manhattan @ Rider +6.1 142.1 76% 58–71 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Marist +1.1 135.8 60% 66–55 ✗
Fairfield @ Niagara -2.2 147.0 40% 72–96 ✗
Siena @ Canisius +16.2 142.8 90% 63–67 ✓
Buffalo @ Akron +16.0 142.4 90% 59–76 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Robert Morris -5.6 150.2 27% 88–91 ✗
Stetson @ Queens University -2.8 152.9 41% 84–66 ✓
Jacksonville @ North Florida +4.2 146.7 68% 74–82 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Kennesaw State +5.7 148.4 76% 75–78 ✓
DePaul @ Villanova +17.1 136.4 91% 69–94 ✓
Wright State @ Youngstown State +2.9 160.2 66% 71–81 ✓
Nebraska @ Iowa +3.4 159.2 65% 76–94 ✓
Boise State @ Nevada +6.7 137.4 75% 64–56 ✗
Tennessee @ Georgia -4.3 140.1 34% 85–79 ✓
Syracuse @ North Carolina +12.2 147.4 86% 67–103 ✓
Northwestern @ Wisconsin +11.1 140.4 83% 63–71 ✓
NC State @ Louisville -6.5 145.2 24% 89–83 ✓
Towson @ Northeastern +1.4 132.6 57% 59–67 ✓
Seton Hall @ Butler +5.5 144.3 71% 78–72 ✗
Ohio @ Western Michigan +0.5 150.3 55% 79–81 ✓
Morehead State @ SIU Edwardsville -5.6 137.9 25% 48–61 ✗
VCU @ La Salle -2.6 143.5 40% 71–65 ✓
St. John's @ Creighton +7.0 144.7 76% 65–66 ✓
Presbyterian @ Gardner-Webb +3.8 146.5 65% 60–76 ✓
Stony Brook @ William & Mary -0.7 144.7 50% 63–59 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss +12.0 141.3 87% 56–69 ✓
Stonehill @ Fairleigh Dickinson +4.4 146.2 69% 74–81 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Miami (OH) +8.0 144.8 80% 54–71 ✓
Wofford @ The Citadel +1.9 145.0 61% 72–71 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Detroit Mercy -9.9 138.4 16% 81–76 ✓
UMBC @ UMass Lowell +12.4 152.8 88% 82–86 ✓
Oklahoma @ Kansas +4.7 141.7 72% 66–78 ✓
Kentucky @ Texas A&M +1.5 151.8 52% 92–97 ✓
San Diego State @ New Mexico +1.9 144.8 59% 70–88 ✓
Virginia @ Wake Forest +6.2 132.1 74% 47–66 ✓
Bradley @ UIC -2.9 132.4 38% 77–59 ✓
Belmont @ Indiana State +10.8 159.5 86% 64–94 ✓
Radford @ Winthrop +4.3 138.8 70% 88–92 ✓
Longwood @ UNC Asheville +1.9 141.6 61% 61–65 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Charleston Southern +0.1 141.3 47% 70–77 ✓
Hofstra @ Campbell -7.1 134.0 22% 68–69 ✗
Xavier @ Providence +3.8 135.8 70% 85–65 ✗
Navy @ Lafayette -0.6 126.2 47% 62–78 ✗
Davidson @ George Washington +2.8 147.3 67% 79–83 ✓
Massachusetts @ Rhode Island -3.3 147.6 35% 77–89 ✗
Merrimack @ Le Moyne -2.6 132.6 39% 66–62 ✓
Long Island University @ Sacred Heart +6.5 143.3 76% 55–89 ✓
Kent State @ Central Michigan -5.1 142.8 33% 62–77 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Furman +3.6 148.9 68% 73–82 ✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer -1.9 137.5 35% 64–52 ✓
Oakland @ IU Indianapolis -12.7 144.8 14% 88–66 ✓
NJIT @ Vermont +12.0 139.4 87% 55–76 ✓
Houston Christian @ East Texas A&M +7.8 144.4 79% 69–65 ✗
Penn State @ Purdue +16.0 152.9 90% 78–95 ✓
Florida State @ Notre Dame -0.8 133.6 46% 67–58 ✓
Fordham @ St. Bonaventure +11.5 144.7 87% 80–74 ✗
Utah State @ UNLV -1.8 142.7 38% 87–86 ✓
Boston College @ Clemson +8.8 151.9 82% 78–89 ✓
South Dakota State @ Denver +2.2 159.5 64% 80–99 ✓
North Dakota @ Kansas City +4.5 143.6 69% 82–69 ✗
Seattle U @ UT Arlington -1.4 141.6 47% 75–80 ✗
South Carolina @ Missouri -3.1 138.5 39% 71–69 ✓
Colgate @ Bucknell -2.5 133.6 41% 84–73 ✓
Texas State @ UL Monroe -3.6 130.1 35% 67–54 ✓
Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina +0.4 145.5 50% 75–79 ✓
Louisiana @ Arkansas State +2.4 147.3 65% 84–77 ✗
BYU @ UCF -5.6 141.4 29% 63–58 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Howard +9.5 144.4 85% 61–72 ✓
Kansas State @ Texas Tech +7.1 140.1 76% 59–60 ✓
SMU @ East Carolina -7.2 133.4 21% 75–64 ✓
Fresno State @ Wyoming +4.4 137.9 69% 67–68 ✓
Southern @ Florida A&M -6.2 140.9 28% 74–65 ✓
Army @ American University +5.6 132.7 71% 60–79 ✓
Arkansas @ Florida +8.6 161.8 80% 68–90 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Joseph's +8.2 139.7 78% 78–75 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Saint Francis -5.2 134.3 29% 75–61 ✓
Bowling Green @ Northern Illinois +0.5 149.3 53% 83–72 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee Tech +7.5 142.8 78% 59–70 ✓
South Alabama @ Marshall +5.9 146.5 75% 91–85 ✗
App State @ James Madison +7.2 146.6 78% 59–55 ✗
Binghamton @ UAlbany +4.8 153.4 71% 75–95 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Northwestern State -3.6 141.5 26% 71–97 ✗
Lamar @ Nicholls +1.8 152.8 63% 78–76 ✗
Grambling @ Bethune-Cookman +4.4 137.0 68% 79–69 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Northridge +7.9 139.3 79% 71–76 ✓
Monmouth @ Charleston +5.6 143.0 75% 83–94 ✓
Little Rock @ UT Martin +4.0 162.9 69% 72–77 ✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee State +7.8 139.6 80% 60–75 ✓
Western Illinois @ Eastern Illinois -0.7 132.8 45% 63–60 ✓
Bellarmine @ Central Arkansas -1.6 143.3 43% 57–59 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Duke +16.2 147.9 90% 79–84 ✓
Alcorn State @ Alabama State +6.0 144.0 74% 53–55 ✓
Holy Cross @ Lehigh +10.6 143.3 85% 69–66 ✗
Boston University @ Loyola Maryland -3.7 130.5 30% 60–58 ✓
Southern Miss @ Troy +5.0 147.2 73% 56–82 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Georgia State +9.9 150.2 85% 62–90 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ New Orleans -4.2 142.3 34% 80–83 ✗
SE Louisiana @ McNeese +14.8 132.4 88% 65–74 ✓
Austin Peay @ Lipscomb +5.7 137.8 74% 77–91 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Western Kentucky +2.0 134.1 65% 69–80 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Davis +12.0 137.8 87% 71–78 ✓
Houston @ TCU -4.1 133.7 32% 67–68 ✗
Arizona @ Washington State -10.0 152.6 20% 70–73 ✗
LSU @ Auburn +13.0 150.1 87% 78–93 ✓
Texas @ West Virginia -6.7 140.1 24% 73–76 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Texas Southern +8.7 146.6 82% 70–67 ✗
Temple @ North Texas +11.7 130.8 86% 51–69 ✓
George Mason @ Richmond +2.3 130.9 61% 70–77 ✓
VMI @ Samford +20.3 157.5 91% 96–134 ✓
Jackson State @ Alabama A&M -5.5 148.6 26% 75–67 ✓
Sam Houston @ Middle Tennessee -0.9 131.9 47% 60–51 ✓
UTEP @ Florida International +0.9 139.7 57% 68–72 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Prairie View A&M +13.1 132.7 87% 60–71 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.