Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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42–15 on winners spread MAE 10.2 57 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida Atlantic @ Tulane -3.6 159.6 36% 85–84 ✓
William & Mary @ Hampton -1.8 148.2 37% 73–61 ✓
Stony Brook @ Towson +3.5 134.8 67% 64–73 ✓
Monmouth @ UNC Wilmington +4.4 141.9 68% 56–69 ✓
Hofstra @ Northeastern -1.5 138.9 44% 68–71 ✗
Elon @ Charleston +11.0 152.8 87% 62–80 ✓
Drexel @ North Carolina A&T -13.7 143.0 14% 67–63 ✓
Delaware @ Campbell -7.5 135.7 22% 68–62 ✓
Michigan @ Maryland +2.0 141.2 62% 57–64 ✓
VMI @ Chattanooga +10.4 144.8 86% 61–109 ✓
South Alabama @ James Madison +14.3 155.9 88% 55–89 ✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia State +6.5 147.9 77% 70–77 ✓
App State @ Coastal Carolina -8.2 144.7 19% 70–45 ✓
UMBC @ Vermont +12.1 150.7 88% 72–77 ✓
Binghamton @ Bryant +5.7 151.1 74% 69–77 ✓
New Mexico State @ Florida International +1.2 144.2 57% 67–77 ✓
Seattle U @ UT Rio Grande Valley -10.1 143.1 17% 80–81 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Samford +9.1 149.3 81% 70–79 ✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas City +2.3 142.9 62% 92–91 ✗
South Dakota State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +5.4 133.2 73% 81–80 ✗
North Dakota @ Omaha +5.6 138.8 72% 61–79 ✓
South Dakota @ Oral Roberts +8.6 150.7 82% 66–84 ✓
Utah Valley @ UT Arlington +0.8 138.5 56% 69–83 ✓
Western Illinois @ UT Martin +2.6 149.3 62% 73–64 ✗
Southern Indiana @ SIU Edwardsville +6.4 136.5 76% 64–67 ✓
Lindenwood @ Southeast Missouri State +1.1 139.5 54% 74–68 ✗
Morehead State @ Eastern Illinois -5.2 136.4 28% 78–52 ✓
Jackson State @ Alabama State +2.3 142.0 63% 73–63 ✗
Southern Miss @ UL Monroe -3.1 138.1 35% 71–58 ✓
Texas State @ Arkansas State +5.5 136.4 74% 82–85 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Central Arkansas -2.2 147.3 42% 86–63 ✓
Bellarmine @ North Alabama +5.3 144.6 69% 53–69 ✓
Michigan State @ Illinois +6.0 147.5 74% 68–71 ✓
UCLA @ Utah +12.7 137.4 87% 44–90 ✓
Radford @ Longwood +6.0 134.0 74% 69–58 ✗
Alcorn State @ Alabama A&M +2.4 156.5 60% 74–71 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Utah Tech -4.0 147.0 35% 70–75 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Grand Canyon +15.1 149.6 89% 64–74 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Middle Tennessee -10.4 128.0 18% 60–52 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Davis +1.5 142.4 54% 75–95 ✓
Weber State @ Sacramento State -12.1 136.5 15% 69–71 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Montana State +4.0 140.8 67% 50–79 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Montana +7.1 158.8 79% 98–92 ✗
Gonzaga @ Santa Clara -3.2 147.3 38% 76–77 ✗
San Francisco @ San Diego -8.7 139.7 21% 83–63 ✓
Pacific @ Pepperdine +11.0 142.7 87% 78–93 ✓
Tarleton State @ California Baptist +1.0 130.1 55% 63–77 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC San Diego +5.7 148.3 73% 74–88 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Riverside +4.7 136.2 68% 56–71 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Santa Barbara +7.4 141.6 78% 64–66 ✓
Idaho State @ Portland State +6.8 140.5 77% 69–63 ✗
Arizona State @ Washington +7.1 146.9 75% 67–82 ✓
Stanford @ Oregon State +0.3 144.8 50% 88–84 ✗
Portland @ Saint Mary's +15.4 133.3 90% 52–95 ✓
UC Irvine @ Hawai'i -2.8 136.4 39% 60–50 ✓
Cleveland State @ Milwaukee +0.6 155.6 52% 80–88 ✓
Minnesota @ Indiana +1.5 144.5 58% 62–74 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.