And I'm so pilled up that I rattle. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
← All models

Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
28–18 on winners spread MAE 9.6 46 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Kansas @ UCF -0.9 139.5 40% 60–65 ✗
Tennessee @ Mississippi State -0.5 134.9 45% 72–77 ✗
Clemson @ Virginia Tech -0.0 142.4 50% 72–87 ✗
Louisville @ Miami +16.8 154.7 90% 80–71 ✗
East Carolina @ Temple +2.8 137.3 66% 73–62 ✗
Tulsa @ Charlotte +5.4 131.9 72% 76–84 ✓
Winthrop @ Presbyterian -5.4 142.2 28% 81–71 ✓
UNC Asheville @ High Point +7.3 153.7 79% 79–84 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Gardner-Webb +11.2 140.8 85% 86–74 ✗
Lafayette @ Colgate +9.8 129.6 84% 69–64 ✗
Navy @ Holy Cross -6.2 133.2 24% 80–70 ✓
American University @ Boston University +1.6 133.8 59% 68–72 ✓
La Salle @ Massachusetts +13.0 151.9 87% 65–81 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Saint Louis -8.0 147.7 25% 85–88 ✗
Bucknell @ Lehigh +4.0 137.3 66% 86–80 ✗
Mercer @ Wofford +4.1 147.4 69% 73–74 ✓
Western Carolina @ East Tennessee State -0.0 137.6 48% 80–66 ✓
The Citadel @ Furman +2.3 146.9 63% 68–82 ✓
Wright State @ Robert Morris -1.3 161.4 38% 101–76 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Oakland +6.2 149.8 77% 65–70 ✓
Chicago State @ Fairleigh Dickinson +0.7 140.4 49% 75–74 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Marshall +10.2 146.8 86% 74–79 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Queens University +1.8 145.6 59% 75–78 ✓
Stetson @ Kennesaw State +1.1 156.6 56% 70–88 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Liberty +7.9 131.8 77% 61–51 ✗
Illinois State @ Belmont +6.7 147.9 79% 60–67 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Sam Houston +0.6 146.8 51% 74–78 ✓
North Carolina @ NC State -2.5 148.3 40% 67–54 ✓
UTSA @ Memphis +15.4 157.1 89% 101–107 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Valparaiso -11.9 133.1 14% 77–68 ✓
UIC @ Northern Iowa +5.5 139.5 74% 59–67 ✓
Murray State @ Missouri State +4.1 142.5 71% 77–53 ✗
Indiana State @ Drake -0.1 152.2 49% 78–89 ✗
Evansville @ Bradley +7.7 144.7 78% 50–86 ✓
UConn @ Xavier -2.0 143.3 39% 80–75 ✓
Wisconsin @ Ohio State +1.6 141.8 58% 71–60 ✗
Louisiana @ Troy +1.3 144.5 58% 73–79 ✓
Oklahoma @ TCU +2.3 146.3 63% 71–80 ✓
Butler @ Marquette +9.4 150.3 82% 69–62 ✗
Boston College @ Syracuse +4.6 151.2 69% 59–69 ✓
Arkansas @ Georgia +5.4 146.8 75% 66–76 ✓
Florida @ Ole Miss +2.3 157.8 61% 85–103 ✓
Washington State @ USC +3.4 145.8 67% 72–64 ✗
Colorado @ California -6.6 151.4 26% 78–82 ✗
New Hampshire @ Maine +0.4 137.9 53% 79–74 ✗
NJIT @ UMass Lowell +14.0 145.4 89% 62–70 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.