Betting Lines
| Spread | OAK -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | OAK -225 NKU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OAK +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | OAK -8.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (-15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OAK -4.7 (+0.3) | 147.7 (-12.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OAK -6.2 (-1.2) | 149.8 (-14.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OAK -6.5 (-1.5) | 150.8 (-15.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OAK -6.6 (-1.6) | 149.6 (-14.6) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | NKU 85 – 84 OAK |
| Feb 1, 2026 | OAK 76 – 65 NKU |
| Dec 18, 2025 | OAK 82 – 77 NKU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | NKU 84 – 75 OAK |
| Jan 11, 2025 | OAK 68 – 53 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OAK | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 9-7 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#132) | -2.2 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#117) | -0.43 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#125) | -0.54 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#76) | 0.481 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OAK | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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