Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -5.0 Push |
| O/U | 147.0 Over |
| Money | XAV +170 CONN -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +5 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -2.3 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -0.5 (-4.5) | 142.8 (+12.2) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -2.0 (-3.0) | 143.3 (+11.7) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -1.8 (-3.2) | 142.9 (+12.1) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -0.7 (-4.3) | 143.1 (+11.9) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | CONN 93 – 68 XAV |
| Feb 4, 2026 | CONN 92 – 60 XAV |
| Dec 31, 2025 | CONN 90 – 67 XAV |
| Jan 26, 2025 | XAV 76 – 72 CONN |
| Dec 19, 2024 | CONN 94 – 89 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 37-3 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 18-2 |
| Home | 11-7 | 17-0 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 12-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | W13 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 63.4 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#48) | 16.6 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#119) | 3.44 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#85) | 4.22 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#89) | 0.633 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 50.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 38.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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