Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | PRES +210 WIN -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +10 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -5.1 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -5.9 (-4.1) | 146.2 (+5.8) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -5.4 (-4.6) | 142.2 (+9.8) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -4.6 (-5.4) | 143.4 (+8.6) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -4.6 (-5.4) | 145.7 (+6.3) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | WIN 73 – 71 PRES |
| Feb 28, 2026 | WIN 74 – 70 PRES |
| Jan 24, 2026 | WIN 82 – 72 PRES |
| Feb 20, 2025 | WIN 81 – 77 PRES |
| Jan 29, 2025 | WIN 76 – 67 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 8-8 |
| Home | 8-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#293) | 1.9 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#300) | 0.48 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#292) | 0.66 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.394 (#332) | 0.527 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 36.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.4% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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