Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | BU -110 AMER +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +4 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | BU -3.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -1.9 (+2.1) | 132.3 (+7.7) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -1.6 (+2.4) | 133.8 (+6.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -1.9 (+2.1) | 135.3 (+4.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -0.8 (+3.2) | 133.5 (+6.5) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | BU 75 – 73 AMER |
| Feb 28, 2026 | BU 68 – 65 AMER |
| Jan 3, 2026 | AMER 64 – 62 BU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | AMER 48 – 44 BU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | BU 60 – 54 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-7 | 8-7 |
| Away | 7-10 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#268) | -5.0 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#296) | -0.97 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#277) | -1.20 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#334) | 0.441 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 80.3% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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