Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | FDU -155 CHST +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CHST +1 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | FDU -0.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FDU -1.3 (-2.3) | 140.6 (+8.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -0.7 (-1.7) | 140.4 (+8.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CHST -0.0 (-1.0) | 141.5 (+7.5) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -0.7 (-1.7) | 140.3 (+8.7) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | FDU 60 – 59 CHST |
| Jan 8, 2026 | FDU 70 – 63 CHST |
| Feb 14, 2025 | FDU 91 – 49 CHST |
| Jan 21, 2025 | FDU 58 – 48 CHST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 0-0 |
| Home | 7-7 | 6-5 |
| Away | 8-9 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#330) | -7.4 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#304) | -1.33 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.41 (#325) | -2.00 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#317) | 0.442 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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