Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | FDU -218 CHST +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +7 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | FDU -2.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FDU -1.9 (+5.1) | 136.3 (-3.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -0.8 (+6.2) | 136.6 (-3.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -0.4 (+6.6) | 137.5 (-4.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -0.4 (+6.6) | 137.4 (-4.4) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | FDU 60 – 59 CHST |
| Feb 14, 2025 | FDU 91 – 49 CHST |
| Jan 21, 2025 | FDU 58 – 48 CHST |
| Jan 11, 2024 | CHST 75 – 74 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-6 | 5-6 |
| Away | 3-15 | 2-19 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -13.7 (#343) | -12.1 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.31 (#354) | -2.68 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.28 (#353) | -3.29 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.372 (#353) | 0.427 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 58.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 61.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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