Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | FDU -425 CHST +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +42 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | FDU -9.4 (+32.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FDU -6.3 (+35.7) | 145.1 (-5.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -8.2 (+33.8) | 142.1 (-2.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -8.0 (+34.0) | 142.1 (-2.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -8.3 (+33.7) | 142.8 (-2.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | FDU 60 – 59 CHST |
| Jan 8, 2026 | FDU 70 – 63 CHST |
| Jan 21, 2025 | FDU 58 – 48 CHST |
| Jan 11, 2024 | CHST 75 – 74 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 4-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 3-7 |
| Away | 4-15 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 62.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#318) | -16.2 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#305) | -2.35 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#307) | -2.91 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#297) | 0.415 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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