Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | BEL -225 ILST +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +7 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -9.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -8.7 (-1.7) | 147.3 (-20.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -6.7 (+0.3) | 147.9 (-20.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -7.3 (-0.3) | 148.6 (-21.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -6.9 (+0.1) | 147.3 (-20.3) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | ILST 81 – 74 BEL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | BEL 80 – 69 ILST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | BEL 76 – 63 ILST |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ILST 81 – 78 BEL |
| Dec 5, 2024 | BEL 99 – 97 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#134) | -2.9 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#89) | -0.16 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#95) | -0.17 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#81) | 0.492 (#190) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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