Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | DRKE -120 INST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DRKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +11 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | INST -2.8 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -0.5 (+10.5) | 154.1 (+12.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -0.1 (+11.1) | 152.2 (+14.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -0.1 (+11.1) | 154.3 (+12.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -0.9 (+10.1) | 153.5 (+13.5) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | DRKE 76 – 62 INST |
| Jan 4, 2026 | DRKE 74 – 72 INST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | DRKE 85 – 81 INST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | DRKE 71 – 53 INST |
| Mar 10, 2024 | DRKE 84 – 80 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DRKE | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 17-3 |
| Home | 16-0 | 16-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#88) | 12.9 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#64) | 2.37 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#60) | 2.83 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#67) | 0.593 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DRKE | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 51.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 41.1% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 61.0% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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