I had 'em all out there steppin' and fetchin' like their heads were on fire and their asses was catchin'. "The Ballad of Uneasy Rider" - Charlie Daniels
Missouri Valley Conference · Great Southern Bank Arena · January 11, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread MOST -5.5 Away covered
O/U 146.5 Under
Money MOST -200 / MUR +200
Model Predictions
Spread Total MOST win
Actual MUR +24 130 Lost
Massey MOST -6.9 (-30.9)
Massey Totals 144.1 (-14.1)
Bradley-Terry 85%
Weighted B-T 87%
Baseline Plus ML MOST -4.9 (-28.9) 142.2 (-12.2) 67%
Efficiency Plus ML MOST -4.2 (-28.2) 141.6 (-11.6) 68%
Baseline Tuned ML MOST -4.1 (-28.1) 142.5 (-12.5) 71%
Baseline ML MOST -5.0 (-29.0) 141.8 (-11.8) 67%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 1, 2025 MOST 7756 MUR
Mar 7, 2024 MOST 6035 MUR
Feb 15, 2024 MUR 8272 MOST
Feb 22, 2023 MOST 8469 MUR
Jan 28, 2023 MUR 7471 MOST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MOST MUR
Overall 17-16 12-20
Conference 8-12 9-11
Home 9-5 8-8
Away 4-10 4-9
Neutral 4-1 0-3
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 71.2 69.1
Avg Pts Against 71.3 70.3
Massey 1.9 (#137) -0.9 (#180)
Bradley-Terry 0.21 (#162) -0.79 (#246)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.50 (#142) -0.54 (#219)
RPI 0.508 (#160) 0.455 (#254)
Shooting & Four Factors MOST MUR
FG% 44.2% 43.5%
3PT% 31.9% 32.3%
REB / G 38.6 32.9
OREB / G 8.9 9.5
AST / TO 0.96 1.35
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.9% 49.7%
TOV% 18.6% 13.5%
ORB% 27.2% 26.9%
FT Rate 25.9% 24.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.8% 54.4%
Opp TOV% 13.8% 17.8%
DRB% 74.7% 73.5%
Opp FT Rate 17.3% 19.8%

Game Analysis

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