Come on down and meet your maker. Come on down and take a stand. "The Stand" - The Alarm
Missouri Valley Conference · CFSB Center · February 15, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread MUR -3.5 Home covered
O/U 136.5 Over
Money MUR -188 / MOST +145
Model Predictions
Spread Total MUR win
Actual MUR +10 154 Won
Massey MUR -4.1 (+5.9)
Massey Totals 138.3 (+15.7)
Bradley-Terry 45%
Weighted B-T 57%
Baseline Plus ML MUR -3.0 (+7.0) 139.5 (+14.5) 68%
Efficiency Plus ML MUR -1.8 (+8.2) 137.1 (+16.9) 62%
Baseline Tuned ML MUR -2.5 (+7.5) 138.0 (+16.0) 64%
Baseline ML MUR -2.8 (+7.2) 138.6 (+15.4) 64%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 1, 2025 MOST 7756 MUR
Mar 7, 2024 MOST 6035 MUR
Jan 11, 2024 MUR 7753 MOST
Feb 22, 2023 MOST 8469 MUR
Jan 28, 2023 MUR 7471 MOST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MUR MOST
Overall 12-20 17-16
Conference 9-11 8-12
Home 8-8 9-5
Away 4-9 4-10
Neutral 0-3 4-1
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L3 L1
Avg Pts For 69.1 71.2
Avg Pts Against 70.3 71.3
Massey 2.2 (#135) 1.6 (#140)
Bradley-Terry -0.31 (#202) 0.52 (#129)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.15 (#161) 0.56 (#136)
RPI 0.491 (#186) 0.510 (#154)
Shooting & Four Factors MUR MOST
FG% 44.1% 43.6%
3PT% 31.9% 31.7%
REB / G 32.6 39.4
OREB / G 9.0 10.2
AST / TO 1.29 1.00
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.0% 49.7%
TOV% 14.0% 17.3%
ORB% 26.0% 28.8%
FT Rate 21.0% 22.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.7% 47.3%
Opp TOV% 18.7% 13.3%
DRB% 73.7% 75.8%
Opp FT Rate 19.7% 18.8%

Game Analysis

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