Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
Murray State Racers
35 60
FINAL Neutral Conference MVC
Missouri State Bears
Missouri Valley Conference · Enterprise Center (Neutral) · March 7, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread MUR -2.5 Away covered
O/U 139.5 Under
Money MUR -150 / MOST +115
Model Predictions
Spread Total MUR win
Actual MOST +25 95 Lost
Massey MUR -0.8 (-25.8)
Massey Totals 140.8 (-45.8)
Bradley-Terry 35%
Weighted B-T 43%
Baseline Plus ML MOST -0.3 (-24.7) 142.3 (-47.3) 52%
Efficiency Plus ML MOST -0.5 (-24.5) 139.1 (-44.1) 53%
Baseline Tuned ML MOST -0.2 (-24.8) 140.7 (-45.7) 52%
Baseline ML MOST -0.4 (-24.6) 142.2 (-47.2) 48%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 1, 2025 MOST 7756 MUR
Feb 15, 2024 MUR 8272 MOST
Jan 11, 2024 MUR 7753 MOST
Feb 22, 2023 MOST 8469 MUR
Jan 28, 2023 MUR 7471 MOST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MUR MOST
Overall 12-20 17-16
Conference 9-11 8-12
Home 8-8 9-5
Away 4-9 4-10
Neutral 0-3 4-1
Last 5 1-4 2-3
Streak L3 L1
Avg Pts For 69.1 71.2
Avg Pts Against 70.3 71.3
Massey 1.4 (#147) 0.6 (#159)
Bradley-Terry -0.32 (#207) 0.29 (#143)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.08 (#158) 0.36 (#144)
RPI 0.489 (#200) 0.501 (#175)
Shooting & Four Factors MUR MOST
FG% 45.2% 44.2%
3PT% 32.3% 31.6%
REB / G 32.2 39.1
OREB / G 9.0 10.2
AST / TO 1.21 1.00
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.9% 50.1%
TOV% 14.4% 17.3%
ORB% 26.4% 29.2%
FT Rate 20.8% 22.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.6% 48.6%
Opp TOV% 17.9% 13.0%
DRB% 74.4% 75.4%
Opp FT Rate 19.9% 18.0%

Game Analysis

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