Funky Claude was running in and out / pulling kids out the ground "Smoke On the Water" - Deep Purple
Missouri Valley Conference · Great Southern Bank Arena · February 22, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread MOST -6.5 Home covered
O/U 133.5 Over
Money MOST -250 / MUR +188
Model Predictions
Spread Total MOST win
Actual MOST +15 153 Won
Massey MOST -7.4 (+7.6)
Massey Totals 133.4 (+19.6)
Bradley-Terry 63%
Weighted B-T 67%
Baseline Plus ML MOST -4.0 (+11.0) 136.6 (+16.4) 71%
Efficiency Plus ML MOST -6.1 (+8.9) 132.8 (+20.2) 73%
Baseline Tuned ML MOST -4.5 (+10.5) 134.9 (+18.1) 70%
Baseline ML MOST -4.6 (+10.4) 136.1 (+16.9) 72%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 1, 2025 MOST 7756 MUR
Mar 7, 2024 MOST 6035 MUR
Feb 15, 2024 MUR 8272 MOST
Jan 11, 2024 MUR 7753 MOST
Jan 28, 2023 MUR 7471 MOST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MOST MUR
Overall 17-15 17-15
Conference 12-8 11-9
Home 10-4 11-2
Away 5-8 3-11
Neutral 2-3 3-2
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 65.0 69.8
Avg Pts Against 63.7 72.6
Massey 0.5 (#157) -3.4 (#223)
Bradley-Terry 0.06 (#167) 0.16 (#157)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.06 (#176) -0.04 (#174)
RPI 0.521 (#138) 0.506 (#169)
Shooting & Four Factors MOST MUR
FG% 42.6% 43.7%
3PT% 32.5% 31.3%
REB / G 34.5 34.8
OREB / G 11.3 9.6
AST / TO 0.90 1.03
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.7% 48.9%
TOV% 19.6% 16.6%
ORB% 32.8% 28.0%
FT Rate 17.5% 25.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.7% 51.8%
Opp TOV% 19.0% 15.3%
DRB% 72.8% 72.2%
Opp FT Rate 21.5% 18.3%

Game Analysis

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