Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | FUR -600 CIT +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +14 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -4.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -2.3 (+11.7) | 146.9 (+3.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -5.5 (+8.5) | 146.6 (+3.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -1.8 (+12.2) | 144.8 (+5.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -2.1 (+11.9) | 148.1 (+1.9) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | FUR 72 – 51 CIT |
| Jan 22, 2026 | CIT 77 – 75 FUR |
| Feb 27, 2025 | FUR 85 – 42 CIT |
| Jan 9, 2025 | FUR 67 – 63 CIT |
| Feb 1, 2024 | FUR 82 – 79 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 3-15 |
| Home | 12-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-10 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#183) | -1.1 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#232) | -0.46 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#212) | -0.45 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#228) | 0.478 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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