Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | HPU -275 UNCA +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +5 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -9.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -6.8 (-1.8) | 154.4 (+8.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -7.3 (-2.3) | 153.7 (+9.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -7.9 (-2.9) | 154.2 (+8.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -8.5 (-3.5) | 155.2 (+7.8) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | HPU 75 – 71 UNCA |
| Feb 20, 2026 | HPU 74 – 48 UNCA |
| Dec 31, 2025 | HPU 87 – 69 UNCA |
| Feb 9, 2025 | HPU 104 – 100 UNCA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCA 103 – 99 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 12-4 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-2 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.1 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#115) | -1.7 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#92) | 0.37 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#79) | 0.30 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#120) | 0.519 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 33.9% | 33.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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