Lights going out, and a kick in the balls. "That's Entertainment" - The Jam
← All models

Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
85–30 on winners spread MAE 8.5 115 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Rice @ South Florida +8.8 144.2 80% 73–81 ✓
Dayton @ Duquesne -1.9 139.0 38% 72–62 ✓
Manhattan @ Rider +6.3 142.9 74% 58–71 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Marist +2.1 138.5 58% 66–55 ✗
Fairfield @ Niagara -2.3 149.3 36% 72–96 ✗
Siena @ Canisius +16.7 142.6 91% 63–67 ✓
Buffalo @ Akron +17.3 143.8 90% 59–76 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Robert Morris -5.5 152.6 32% 88–91 ✗
Stetson @ Queens University -2.4 154.2 37% 84–66 ✓
Jacksonville @ North Florida +4.2 147.8 67% 74–82 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Kennesaw State +5.7 150.4 75% 75–78 ✓
DePaul @ Villanova +19.0 136.4 91% 69–94 ✓
Wright State @ Youngstown State +2.1 161.6 69% 71–81 ✓
Nebraska @ Iowa +3.8 159.7 70% 76–94 ✓
Boise State @ Nevada +6.4 137.4 75% 64–56 ✗
Tennessee @ Georgia -4.0 140.5 30% 85–79 ✓
Syracuse @ North Carolina +11.7 146.6 83% 67–103 ✓
Northwestern @ Wisconsin +9.7 141.3 82% 63–71 ✓
NC State @ Louisville -6.3 145.2 26% 89–83 ✓
Towson @ Northeastern +0.8 133.3 56% 59–67 ✓
Seton Hall @ Butler +5.2 143.7 69% 78–72 ✗
Ohio @ Western Michigan +0.8 153.1 58% 79–81 ✓
Morehead State @ SIU Edwardsville -6.2 138.2 24% 48–61 ✗
VCU @ La Salle -3.2 144.1 38% 71–65 ✓
St. John's @ Creighton +7.2 145.3 80% 65–66 ✓
Presbyterian @ Gardner-Webb +3.8 148.1 69% 60–76 ✓
Stony Brook @ William & Mary -0.6 145.1 49% 63–59 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss +12.8 142.1 86% 56–69 ✓
Stonehill @ Fairleigh Dickinson +4.7 144.9 65% 74–81 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Miami (OH) +8.0 145.6 80% 54–71 ✓
Wofford @ The Citadel +2.0 145.8 63% 72–71 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Detroit Mercy -10.9 140.0 15% 81–76 ✓
UMBC @ UMass Lowell +13.6 153.0 87% 82–86 ✓
Oklahoma @ Kansas +4.4 142.0 70% 66–78 ✓
Kentucky @ Texas A&M +1.7 154.0 59% 92–97 ✓
San Diego State @ New Mexico +2.3 144.8 66% 70–88 ✓
Virginia @ Wake Forest +6.0 134.0 71% 47–66 ✓
Bradley @ UIC -3.4 134.2 29% 77–59 ✓
Belmont @ Indiana State +11.7 159.8 84% 64–94 ✓
Radford @ Winthrop +4.6 138.4 68% 88–92 ✓
Longwood @ UNC Asheville +1.4 142.3 59% 61–65 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Charleston Southern -0.4 142.3 50% 70–77 ✗
Hofstra @ Campbell -7.3 136.0 24% 68–69 ✗
Xavier @ Providence +3.9 135.7 66% 85–65 ✗
Navy @ Lafayette +0.1 127.6 43% 62–78 ✓
Davidson @ George Washington +2.9 147.2 64% 79–83 ✓
Massachusetts @ Rhode Island -4.0 149.2 33% 77–89 ✗
Merrimack @ Le Moyne -2.9 133.6 40% 66–62 ✓
Long Island University @ Sacred Heart +6.1 143.0 76% 55–89 ✓
Kent State @ Central Michigan -5.7 143.2 30% 62–77 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Furman +3.8 151.2 65% 73–82 ✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer -2.2 139.0 37% 64–52 ✓
Oakland @ IU Indianapolis -13.0 144.6 13% 88–66 ✓
NJIT @ Vermont +13.3 139.7 86% 55–76 ✓
Houston Christian @ East Texas A&M +8.6 145.8 70% 69–65 ✗
Penn State @ Purdue +17.8 152.5 89% 78–95 ✓
Florida State @ Notre Dame -0.9 133.7 36% 67–58 ✓
Fordham @ St. Bonaventure +11.7 144.0 85% 80–74 ✗
Utah State @ UNLV -1.8 143.0 47% 87–86 ✓
Boston College @ Clemson +8.4 154.1 80% 78–89 ✓
South Dakota State @ Denver +2.1 161.5 64% 80–99 ✓
North Dakota @ Kansas City +4.6 143.9 72% 82–69 ✗
Seattle U @ UT Arlington -1.2 142.1 42% 75–80 ✗
South Carolina @ Missouri -2.2 139.0 36% 71–69 ✓
Colgate @ Bucknell -2.7 134.8 41% 84–73 ✓
Texas State @ UL Monroe -3.5 131.0 38% 67–54 ✓
Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina +0.2 146.5 52% 75–79 ✓
Louisiana @ Arkansas State +2.4 149.0 65% 84–77 ✗
BYU @ UCF -5.9 142.7 23% 63–58 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Howard +10.0 143.1 84% 61–72 ✓
Kansas State @ Texas Tech +6.3 140.6 74% 59–60 ✓
SMU @ East Carolina -7.7 134.4 20% 75–64 ✓
Fresno State @ Wyoming +3.9 138.9 67% 67–68 ✓
Southern @ Florida A&M -6.0 141.1 18% 74–65 ✓
Army @ American University +5.7 132.0 63% 60–79 ✓
Arkansas @ Florida +8.9 163.2 82% 68–90 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Joseph's +8.1 140.1 73% 78–75 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Saint Francis -4.6 135.8 31% 75–61 ✓
Bowling Green @ Northern Illinois -0.2 150.8 45% 83–72 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee Tech +7.1 143.2 74% 59–70 ✓
South Alabama @ Marshall +5.5 146.6 74% 91–85 ✗
App State @ James Madison +6.7 145.8 74% 59–55 ✗
Binghamton @ UAlbany +4.9 153.8 70% 75–95 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Northwestern State -3.4 141.7 29% 71–97 ✗
Lamar @ Nicholls +2.0 152.2 64% 78–76 ✗
Grambling @ Bethune-Cookman +4.4 135.4 58% 79–69 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Northridge +7.7 140.7 79% 71–76 ✓
Monmouth @ Charleston +5.8 143.8 73% 83–94 ✓
Little Rock @ UT Martin +4.4 165.0 73% 72–77 ✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee State +8.5 139.6 79% 60–75 ✓
Western Illinois @ Eastern Illinois -1.1 132.9 38% 63–60 ✓
Bellarmine @ Central Arkansas -2.5 143.9 49% 57–59 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Duke +17.0 147.8 89% 79–84 ✓
Alcorn State @ Alabama State +6.2 144.3 74% 53–55 ✓
Holy Cross @ Lehigh +10.2 142.0 82% 69–66 ✗
Boston University @ Loyola Maryland -3.8 132.1 32% 60–58 ✓
Southern Miss @ Troy +5.0 147.4 73% 56–82 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Georgia State +9.9 150.9 83% 62–90 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ New Orleans -4.4 143.0 34% 80–83 ✗
SE Louisiana @ McNeese +15.4 133.2 87% 65–74 ✓
Austin Peay @ Lipscomb +5.7 137.4 75% 77–91 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Western Kentucky +1.5 133.8 62% 69–80 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Davis +11.1 139.3 86% 71–78 ✓
Houston @ TCU -3.4 134.4 40% 67–68 ✗
Arizona @ Washington State -10.7 155.1 20% 70–73 ✗
LSU @ Auburn +12.9 148.8 86% 78–93 ✓
Texas @ West Virginia -7.0 140.9 25% 73–76 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Texas Southern +9.4 145.9 70% 70–67 ✗
Temple @ North Texas +12.7 130.5 86% 51–69 ✓
George Mason @ Richmond +2.4 132.1 60% 70–77 ✓
VMI @ Samford +24.7 158.0 91% 96–134 ✓
Jackson State @ Alabama A&M -4.9 149.2 31% 75–67 ✓
Sam Houston @ Middle Tennessee -0.7 133.4 45% 60–51 ✓
UTEP @ Florida International +0.6 140.7 54% 68–72 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Prairie View A&M +13.1 133.7 87% 60–71 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.