Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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42–15 on winners spread MAE 10.1 57 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida Atlantic @ Tulane -3.5 159.5 30% 85–84 ✓
William & Mary @ Hampton -2.2 150.0 37% 73–61 ✓
Stony Brook @ Towson +3.9 135.3 66% 64–73 ✓
Monmouth @ UNC Wilmington +4.0 142.9 66% 56–69 ✓
Hofstra @ Northeastern -2.0 138.7 41% 68–71 ✗
Elon @ Charleston +11.6 153.1 86% 62–80 ✓
Drexel @ North Carolina A&T -13.7 143.9 13% 67–63 ✓
Delaware @ Campbell -7.0 137.3 22% 68–62 ✓
Michigan @ Maryland +1.7 142.0 57% 57–64 ✓
VMI @ Chattanooga +11.2 145.2 85% 61–109 ✓
South Alabama @ James Madison +15.8 154.0 87% 55–89 ✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia State +6.1 148.7 76% 70–77 ✓
App State @ Coastal Carolina -8.6 144.8 21% 70–45 ✓
UMBC @ Vermont +13.6 150.9 87% 72–77 ✓
Binghamton @ Bryant +6.2 152.8 80% 69–77 ✓
New Mexico State @ Florida International +1.6 144.6 56% 67–77 ✓
Seattle U @ UT Rio Grande Valley -8.2 143.8 18% 80–81 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Samford +8.8 148.7 79% 70–79 ✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas City +2.3 143.4 56% 92–91 ✗
South Dakota State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +6.4 134.3 71% 81–80 ✗
North Dakota @ Omaha +5.6 140.4 75% 61–79 ✓
South Dakota @ Oral Roberts +8.7 152.1 81% 66–84 ✓
Utah Valley @ UT Arlington -0.0 139.0 50% 69–83 ✗
Western Illinois @ UT Martin +3.2 151.0 42% 73–64 ✗
Southern Indiana @ SIU Edwardsville +6.5 136.8 74% 64–67 ✓
Lindenwood @ Southeast Missouri State +0.8 140.6 48% 74–68 ✗
Morehead State @ Eastern Illinois -4.7 138.3 29% 78–52 ✓
Jackson State @ Alabama State +2.5 141.6 62% 73–63 ✗
Southern Miss @ UL Monroe -2.9 137.6 37% 71–58 ✓
Texas State @ Arkansas State +5.2 137.5 75% 82–85 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Central Arkansas -1.9 148.1 46% 86–63 ✓
Bellarmine @ North Alabama +5.0 145.1 70% 53–69 ✓
Michigan State @ Illinois +6.7 148.5 76% 68–71 ✓
UCLA @ Utah +13.3 137.6 86% 44–90 ✓
Radford @ Longwood +6.0 134.9 73% 69–58 ✗
Alcorn State @ Alabama A&M +1.7 155.3 53% 74–71 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Utah Tech -4.5 148.5 33% 70–75 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Grand Canyon +15.8 149.8 88% 64–74 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Middle Tennessee -10.7 130.0 16% 60–52 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Davis +1.2 145.0 52% 75–95 ✓
Weber State @ Sacramento State -11.5 138.1 17% 69–71 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Montana State +3.7 142.6 72% 50–79 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Montana +7.6 157.0 77% 98–92 ✗
Gonzaga @ Santa Clara -2.7 148.5 42% 76–77 ✗
San Francisco @ San Diego -9.7 141.0 19% 83–63 ✓
Pacific @ Pepperdine +11.8 142.3 87% 78–93 ✓
Tarleton State @ California Baptist +0.5 130.7 52% 63–77 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC San Diego +5.9 150.4 72% 74–88 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Riverside +4.3 137.8 66% 56–71 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Santa Barbara +7.0 141.9 77% 64–66 ✓
Idaho State @ Portland State +7.0 141.7 73% 69–63 ✗
Arizona State @ Washington +7.1 146.8 74% 67–82 ✓
Stanford @ Oregon State -0.3 146.2 47% 88–84 ✓
Portland @ Saint Mary's +17.5 134.7 90% 52–95 ✓
UC Irvine @ Hawai'i -3.4 137.5 37% 60–50 ✓
Cleveland State @ Milwaukee +0.8 156.4 54% 80–88 ✓
Minnesota @ Indiana +1.4 145.3 56% 62–74 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.