Everybody's in despair, every girl and boy. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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29–17 on winners spread MAE 9.7 46 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Kansas @ UCF -1.5 140.2 52% 60–65 ✗
Tennessee @ Mississippi State -0.2 134.4 49% 72–77 ✗
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +0.5 144.4 54% 72–87 ✓
Louisville @ Miami +18.7 155.6 89% 80–71 ✗
East Carolina @ Temple +2.8 136.8 65% 73–62 ✗
Tulsa @ Charlotte +5.6 132.3 69% 76–84 ✓
Winthrop @ Presbyterian -4.6 143.4 31% 81–71 ✓
UNC Asheville @ High Point +7.9 154.2 76% 79–84 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Gardner-Webb +11.1 140.7 81% 86–74 ✗
Lafayette @ Colgate +11.0 128.9 79% 69–64 ✗
Navy @ Holy Cross -6.7 133.2 22% 80–70 ✓
American University @ Boston University +1.9 135.3 52% 68–72 ✓
La Salle @ Massachusetts +12.3 152.3 86% 65–81 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Saint Louis -7.9 148.6 27% 85–88 ✗
Bucknell @ Lehigh +4.0 137.6 66% 86–80 ✗
Mercer @ Wofford +4.0 147.3 65% 73–74 ✓
Western Carolina @ East Tennessee State +0.0 138.5 48% 80–66 ✗
The Citadel @ Furman +2.1 148.1 61% 68–82 ✓
Wright State @ Robert Morris -1.6 159.8 41% 101–76 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Oakland +6.5 150.8 78% 65–70 ✓
Chicago State @ Fairleigh Dickinson -0.0 141.5 44% 75–74 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Marshall +10.3 146.9 85% 74–79 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Queens University +1.6 147.0 59% 75–78 ✓
Stetson @ Kennesaw State +0.7 157.2 51% 70–88 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Liberty +7.8 132.7 71% 61–51 ✗
Illinois State @ Belmont +7.3 148.6 77% 60–67 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Sam Houston +0.0 147.5 45% 74–78 ✓
North Carolina @ NC State -1.6 149.3 43% 67–54 ✓
UTSA @ Memphis +16.5 159.0 89% 101–107 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Valparaiso -10.3 134.6 14% 77–68 ✓
UIC @ Northern Iowa +5.7 139.1 73% 59–67 ✓
Murray State @ Missouri State +5.0 141.8 67% 77–53 ✗
Indiana State @ Drake -0.1 154.3 53% 78–89 ✗
Evansville @ Bradley +8.2 145.0 77% 50–86 ✓
UConn @ Xavier -1.8 142.9 45% 80–75 ✓
Wisconsin @ Ohio State +2.0 142.2 61% 71–60 ✗
Louisiana @ Troy +0.6 145.0 56% 73–79 ✓
Oklahoma @ TCU +2.9 146.4 69% 71–80 ✓
Butler @ Marquette +8.7 151.4 81% 69–62 ✗
Boston College @ Syracuse +4.4 153.4 68% 59–69 ✓
Arkansas @ Georgia +5.2 148.1 77% 66–76 ✓
Florida @ Ole Miss +2.1 158.4 61% 85–103 ✓
Washington State @ USC +3.2 146.1 67% 72–64 ✗
Colorado @ California -6.1 151.3 30% 78–82 ✗
New Hampshire @ Maine +0.1 139.5 48% 79–74 ✗
NJIT @ UMass Lowell +14.4 145.5 88% 62–70 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.