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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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83–32 on winners spread MAE 8.8 115 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Rice @ South Florida	+10.0	142.9	82%	73–81	✓
Dayton @ Duquesne	-2.7	141.1	40%	72–62	✓
Manhattan @ Rider	+9.5	144.4	81%	58–71	✓
Quinnipiac @ Marist	+5.5	137.2	69%	66–55	✗
Fairfield @ Niagara	-2.8	152.1	40%	72–96	✗
Siena @ Canisius	+23.1	138.4	98%	63–67	✓
Buffalo @ Akron	+21.9	140.3	98%	59–76	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Robert Morris	-4.5	155.3	34%	88–91	✗
Stetson @ Queens University	-0.1	158.7	50%	84–66	✓
Jacksonville @ North Florida	+7.6	150.5	75%	74–82	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Kennesaw State	+9.8	155.5	81%	75–78	✓
DePaul @ Villanova	+22.5	135.9	98%	69–94	✓
Wright State @ Youngstown State	+2.9	168.9	60%	71–81	✓
Nebraska @ Iowa	+4.0	163.8	64%	76–94	✓
Boise State @ Nevada	+6.0	138.8	71%	64–56	✗
Tennessee @ Georgia	-7.8	140.7	24%	85–79	✓
Syracuse @ North Carolina	+15.2	151.0	92%	67–103	✓
Northwestern @ Wisconsin	+11.8	138.4	86%	63–71	✓
NC State @ Louisville	-6.5	148.8	28%	89–83	✓
Towson @ Northeastern	+2.5	131.3	59%	59–67	✓
Seton Hall @ Butler	+7.1	149.3	74%	78–72	✗
Ohio @ Western Michigan	-0.1	156.1	50%	79–81	✗
Morehead State @ SIU Edwardsville	-6.4	136.3	28%	48–61	✗
VCU @ La Salle	-3.0	146.1	39%	71–65	✓
St. John's @ Creighton	+9.0	150.7	79%	65–66	✓
Presbyterian @ Gardner-Webb	+8.2	148.2	77%	60–76	✓
Stony Brook @ William & Mary	-0.9	153.2	47%	63–59	✓
Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss	+13.3	141.4	89%	56–69	✓
Stonehill @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+7.7	153.3	76%	74–81	✓
Eastern Michigan @ Miami (OH)	+10.7	144.9	83%	54–71	✓
Wofford @ The Citadel	+3.4	148.5	62%	72–71	✗
Northern Kentucky @ Detroit Mercy	-10.1	138.4	18%	81–76	✓
UMBC @ UMass Lowell	+19.2	163.6	96%	82–86	✓
Oklahoma @ Kansas	+3.6	143.2	63%	66–78	✓
Kentucky @ Texas A&M	+1.0	158.6	54%	92–97	✓
San Diego State @ New Mexico	+2.1	149.7	57%	70–88	✓
Virginia @ Wake Forest	+5.2	129.9	68%	47–66	✓
Bradley @ UIC	-0.8	134.0	47%	77–59	✓
Belmont @ Indiana State	+14.4	168.1	90%	64–94	✓
Radford @ Winthrop	+6.0	140.1	71%	88–92	✓
Longwood @ UNC Asheville	+0.9	144.7	53%	61–65	✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Charleston Southern	+0.2	140.8	51%	70–77	✓
Hofstra @ Campbell	-8.3	130.9	23%	68–69	✗
Xavier @ Providence	+4.0	136.7	64%	85–65	✗
Navy @ Lafayette	+0.1	122.2	50%	62–78	✓
Davidson @ George Washington	+3.2	153.3	61%	79–83	✓
Massachusetts @ Rhode Island	-4.2	154.5	35%	77–89	✗
Merrimack @ Le Moyne	-2.9	133.7	40%	66–62	✓
Long Island University @ Sacred Heart	+9.6	146.0	81%	55–89	✓
Kent State @ Central Michigan	-7.2	148.4	26%	62–77	✗
East Tennessee State @ Furman	+6.1	154.2	71%	73–82	✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer	-3.3	138.3	38%	64–52	✓
Oakland @ IU Indianapolis	-15.1	145.3	8%	88–66	✓
NJIT @ Vermont	+15.7	137.2	92%	55–76	✓
Houston Christian @ East Texas A&M	+9.1	144.4	80%	69–65	✗
Penn State @ Purdue	+22.3	155.5	98%	78–95	✓
Florida State @ Notre Dame	-0.4	134.3	49%	67–58	✓
Fordham @ St. Bonaventure	+14.3	143.5	90%	80–74	✗
Utah State @ UNLV	-3.0	148.4	39%	87–86	✓
Boston College @ Clemson	+9.6	155.0	81%	78–89	✓
South Dakota State @ Denver	+4.0	167.7	64%	80–99	✓
North Dakota @ Kansas City	+7.7	145.2	76%	82–69	✗
Seattle U @ UT Arlington	-0.9	144.9	47%	75–80	✗
South Carolina @ Missouri	-0.5	137.5	48%	71–69	✓
Colgate @ Bucknell	-3.2	130.2	39%	84–73	✓
Texas State @ UL Monroe	-3.5	126.3	38%	67–54	✓
Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina	+1.1	151.3	54%	75–79	✓
Louisiana @ Arkansas State	+3.8	150.7	64%	84–77	✗
BYU @ UCF	-9.9	144.4	18%	63–58	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Howard	+14.5	151.3	91%	61–72	✓
Kansas State @ Texas Tech	+9.0	142.6	79%	59–60	✓
SMU @ East Carolina	-8.9	133.2	21%	75–64	✓
Fresno State @ Wyoming	+6.0	140.7	71%	67–68	✓
Southern @ Florida A&M	-6.4	143.0	28%	74–65	✓
Army @ American University	+7.7	127.4	76%	60–79	✓
Arkansas @ Florida	+11.4	169.8	85%	68–90	✓
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Joseph's	+10.4	138.4	83%	78–75	✗
Central Connecticut @ Saint Francis	-5.6	134.6	30%	75–61	✓
Bowling Green @ Northern Illinois	+2.2	153.7	58%	83–72	✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee Tech	+9.7	142.8	81%	59–70	✓
South Alabama @ Marshall	+8.1	150.8	77%	91–85	✗
App State @ James Madison	+6.5	152.8	72%	59–55	✗
Binghamton @ UAlbany	+7.4	157.9	75%	75–95	✓
Incarnate Word @ Northwestern State	-4.8	150.4	33%	71–97	✗
Lamar @ Nicholls	+4.7	159.8	67%	78–76	✗
Grambling @ Bethune-Cookman	+7.4	135.8	75%	79–69	✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Northridge	+9.6	142.7	81%	71–76	✓
Monmouth @ Charleston	+7.9	146.7	76%	83–94	✓
Little Rock @ UT Martin	+6.5	180.2	72%	72–77	✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee State	+11.2	143.3	85%	60–75	✓
Western Illinois @ Eastern Illinois	+0.1	130.8	50%	63–60	✗
Bellarmine @ Central Arkansas	-1.1	142.5	46%	57–59	✗
Georgia Tech @ Duke	+20.1	148.2	97%	79–84	✓
Alcorn State @ Alabama State	+8.7	149.0	78%	53–55	✓
Holy Cross @ Lehigh	+16.0	149.2	93%	69–66	✗
Boston University @ Loyola Maryland	-1.1	130.5	46%	60–58	✓
Southern Miss @ Troy	+8.1	150.4	77%	56–82	✓
Georgia Southern @ Georgia State	+12.5	150.9	87%	62–90	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ New Orleans	-3.8	148.5	36%	80–83	✗
SE Louisiana @ McNeese	+16.7	129.2	93%	65–74	✓
Austin Peay @ Lipscomb	+8.1	136.1	77%	77–91	✓
Jacksonville State @ Western Kentucky	+2.5	132.0	59%	69–80	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Davis	+13.2	134.9	88%	71–78	✓
Houston @ TCU	-9.9	136.1	18%	67–68	✗
Arizona @ Washington State	-11.5	154.4	15%	70–73	✗
LSU @ Auburn	+17.8	149.2	95%	78–93	✓
Texas @ West Virginia	-6.8	142.9	27%	73–76	✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Texas Southern	+10.5	154.9	83%	70–67	✗
Temple @ North Texas	+15.2	131.4	92%	51–69	✓
George Mason @ Richmond	+3.4	129.2	62%	70–77	✓
VMI @ Samford	+26.7	162.0	99%	96–134	✓
Jackson State @ Alabama A&M	-5.2	154.9	32%	75–67	✓
Sam Houston @ Middle Tennessee	-1.2	131.3	46%	60–51	✓
UTEP @ Florida International	+3.3	143.3	62%	68–72	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Prairie View A&M	+21.6	132.5	98%	60–71	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.