Everybody know I'm a motherfucking monster. "Monster" - Kanye West
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–14 on winners spread MAE 9.7 48 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Miami @ Virginia Tech +4.6 152.1 66% 75–71 ✗
Missouri State @ Evansville +3.2 143.2 62% 74–64 ✗
Drexel @ Elon -7.2 137.2 26% 89–69 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Santa Clara -3.2 134.8 39% 73–49 ✓
Ball State @ Toledo +12.6 151.7 87% 72–77 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Chattanooga +3.3 142.2 62% 70–54 ✗
Bryant @ New Hampshire +5.9 156.9 70% 89–74 ✗
Weber State @ Portland State -4.5 138.9 34% 66–69 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Idaho -4.9 149.8 33% 79–58 ✓
Utah Valley @ UT Rio Grande Valley -4.0 144.5 36% 68–76 ✗
Cincinnati @ Baylor +8.9 156.4 79% 59–62 ✓
California @ Oregon +11.6 155.4 85% 73–80 ✓
Charlotte @ UTSA -5.9 151.9 30% 66–58 ✓
Drake @ Southern Illinois +4.3 141.4 65% 76–58 ✗
North Dakota State @ Omaha +5.9 148.0 70% 92–96 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Oral Roberts -0.2 138.7 49% 87–76 ✓
Tarleton State @ Grand Canyon +12.2 140.2 87% 48–74 ✓
Abilene Christian @ California Baptist +7.6 140.5 76% 53–68 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Montana State +1.5 157.4 55% 81–90 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State +19.6 142.6 96% 42–66 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ North Alabama +4.3 153.7 65% 81–72 ✗
Alabama @ Mississippi State -4.2 156.2 35% 82–74 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Southern Utah -1.9 157.2 43% 84–82 ✓
Pacific @ Loyola Marymount +18.5 142.7 95% 64–81 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Montana +15.7 144.6 92% 47–90 ✓
Idaho State @ Sacramento State +1.2 134.0 54% 64–66 ✓
San José State @ Air Force +0.9 131.1 53% 70–67 ✗
USC @ Colorado +8.6 157.4 78% 58–68 ✓
Pepperdine @ San Diego +3.3 147.4 62% 83–77 ✗
Portland @ San Francisco +23.4 141.5 98% 69–96 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal Poly -9.0 132.8 21% 86–61 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Santa Barbara +2.1 160.1 58% 76–85 ✓
UC Riverside @ Hawai'i +8.1 134.2 77% 56–63 ✓
Georgetown @ UConn +21.2 149.2 97% 67–80 ✓
UAB @ Florida Atlantic +20.7 157.9 97% 73–86 ✓
Rutgers @ Michigan State +12.7 128.1 88% 55–73 ✓
Memphis @ Wichita State -2.7 154.2 40% 112–86 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Iona +4.6 145.1 66% 70–87 ✓
Cleveland State @ Green Bay +3.1 137.8 61% 71–79 ✓
Maryland @ Illinois +15.7 138.0 92% 76–67 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Manhattan -6.4 122.7 28% 81–68 ✓
Rider @ Marist +7.3 132.6 75% 60–83 ✓
Tulane @ Tulsa -1.2 161.2 45% 94–87 ✓
Valparaiso @ Illinois State +8.8 128.6 79% 59–50 ✗
Liberty @ Louisiana Tech +4.3 132.7 65% 76–80 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Murray State +1.6 148.3 56% 70–60 ✗
Delaware @ UNC Wilmington +3.5 148.6 63% 74–79 ✓
Utah @ Stanford -7.2 159.6 26% 73–79 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.