Betting Lines
| Spread | ORU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | ORU -138 STMN +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +11 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | ORU -0.5 (-11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORU -0.9 (-11.9) | 138.5 (+24.5) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -0.1 (-10.9) | 137.8 (+25.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -0.3 (-10.7) | 139.5 (+23.5) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -0.3 (-10.7) | 139.9 (+23.1) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | STMN 92 – 75 ORU |
| Jan 11, 2026 | STMN 82 – 71 ORU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ORU 71 – 66 STMN |
| Jan 30, 2025 | STMN 86 – 71 ORU |
| Feb 9, 2024 | STMN 85 – 63 ORU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORU | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 9-7 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-2 |
| Away | 2-13 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#188) | 2.5 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#221) | 0.01 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#224) | 0.40 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#207) | 0.480 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORU | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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