Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | USD +110 PEPP +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +6 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | USD -2.9 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -1.0 (-7.0) | 145.3 (+14.7) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -2.0 (-8.0) | 146.6 (+13.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USD -1.5 (-7.5) | 147.5 (+12.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -2.0 (-8.0) | 146.6 (+13.4) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | USD 92 – 88 PEPP |
| Jan 9, 2026 | USD 83 – 63 PEPP |
| Feb 14, 2025 | PEPP 88 – 81 USD |
| Jan 31, 2025 | PEPP 98 – 90 USD |
| Mar 9, 2024 | USD 57 – 52 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 5-11 |
| Home | 12-6 | 9-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#238) | -2.6 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#188) | -0.99 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#200) | -1.06 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#190) | 0.437 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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