Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | SUU +250 SFA -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SUU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +2 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -2.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (+9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -2.3 (+0.3) | 151.4 (+14.6) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -2.5 (+0.5) | 153.0 (+13.0) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -2.5 (+0.5) | 153.5 (+12.5) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -2.0 (+0.0) | 153.8 (+12.2) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2024 | SFA 87 – 60 SUU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | SUU 67 – 58 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SUU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 10-10 |
| Home | 6-8 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#247) | 2.2 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#298) | 0.05 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#277) | 0.39 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#306) | 0.489 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SUU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 35.8% |
Game Analysis
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