Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | SFA -400 SUU +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +27 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -7.1 (+19.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (-5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -6.1 (+20.9) | 148.4 (-1.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -5.7 (+21.3) | 145.7 (+1.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -5.5 (+21.5) | 145.6 (+1.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -5.9 (+21.1) | 146.8 (+0.2) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2024 | SFA 84 – 82 SUU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | SUU 67 – 58 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 5-15 |
| Home | 10-5 | 6-8 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 77.8 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#165) | -4.0 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#175) | -1.21 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#152) | -1.10 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#199) | 0.435 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.6% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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