I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
Western Athletic Conference · William R. Johnson Coliseum · March 8, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SFA -8.5 Home covered
O/U 147.5 Under
Money SFA -400 / SUU +280
Model Predictions
Spread Total SFA win
Actual SFA +27 147 Won
Massey SFA -7.1 (+19.9)
Massey Totals 152.5 (-5.5)
Bradley-Terry 85%
Weighted B-T 88%
Efficiency Plus ML SFA -6.1 (+20.9) 148.4 (-1.4) 75%
Baseline Tuned ML SFA -5.7 (+21.3) 145.7 (+1.3) 73%
Baseline ML SFA -5.5 (+21.5) 145.6 (+1.4) 77%
Baseline Plus ML SFA -5.9 (+21.1) 146.8 (+0.2) 76%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 14, 2024 SFA 8482 SUU
Jan 14, 2023 SUU 6758 SFA

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SFA SUU
Overall 18-15 10-21
Conference 10-10 5-15
Home 10-5 6-8
Away 5-8 3-13
Neutral 3-2 1-0
Last 5 1-4 0-5
Streak L1 W1
Avg Pts For 72.6 73.2
Avg Pts Against 71.8 77.8
Massey -0.2 (#165) -4.0 (#240)
Bradley-Terry -0.06 (#175) -1.21 (#294)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.22 (#152) -1.10 (#268)
RPI 0.488 (#199) 0.435 (#302)
Shooting & Four Factors SFA SUU
FG% 43.7% 43.5%
3PT% 32.0% 29.4%
REB / G 35.4 33.3
OREB / G 11.9 10.2
AST / TO 0.71 0.94
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.8% 48.6%
TOV% 22.4% 16.8%
ORB% 34.3% 28.1%
FT Rate 29.1% 27.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.2% 52.4%
Opp TOV% 22.8% 17.0%
DRB% 70.2% 66.1%
Opp FT Rate 34.6% 23.0%

Game Analysis

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