Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | MTST +120 UNCO -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +9 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -1.2 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (+13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -1.7 (+7.3) | 154.2 (+16.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -0.7 (+8.3) | 154.2 (+16.8) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -0.2 (+8.8) | 154.1 (+16.9) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -0.4 (+8.6) | 155.4 (+15.6) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MTST 73 – 68 UNCO |
| Jan 2, 2026 | MTST 89 – 75 UNCO |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNCO 72 – 45 MTST |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UNCO 73 – 66 MTST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UNCO 83 – 82 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#252) | -1.7 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#247) | 0.32 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#242) | 0.38 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#271) | 0.521 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 28.8 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.1 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 18.3% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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