Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | BAY -275 CIN +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +3 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -8.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.0 (-35.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -7.1 (-4.1) | 147.2 (-26.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -6.8 (-3.8) | 148.9 (-27.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -6.8 (-3.8) | 152.4 (-31.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -6.3 (-3.3) | 152.1 (-31.1) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | CIN 67 – 57 BAY |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CIN 69 – 67 BAY |
| Jan 8, 2025 | BAY 68 – 48 CIN |
| Mar 15, 2024 | BAY 68 – 56 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 22-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 16-5 |
| Away | 4-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 17.9 (#9) | 13.5 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#19) | 1.81 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#23) | 2.95 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#28) | 0.578 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 44.9% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 43.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.8% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 38.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 80.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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