Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | CIN -130 BAY +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -0.8 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -0.1 (+1.9) | 140.4 (-4.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -0.9 (+1.1) | 140.8 (-4.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -1.4 (+0.6) | 142.2 (-6.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -1.1 (+0.9) | 140.3 (-4.3) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | CIN 67 – 57 BAY |
| Jan 8, 2025 | BAY 68 – 48 CIN |
| Mar 15, 2024 | BAY 68 – 56 CIN |
| Jan 14, 2024 | BAY 62 – 59 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#46) | 16.4 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#63) | 2.05 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#62) | 2.68 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#91) | 0.579 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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