Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | BAY -230 CIN +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +20 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -6.3 (+13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -7.7 (+12.3) | 136.3 (-20.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -7.2 (+12.8) | 137.5 (-21.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -6.9 (+13.1) | 138.9 (-22.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -6.3 (+13.7) | 139.5 (-23.5) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | CIN 67 – 57 BAY |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CIN 69 – 67 BAY |
| Mar 15, 2024 | BAY 68 – 56 CIN |
| Jan 14, 2024 | BAY 62 – 59 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 17.0 (#20) | 14.7 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#33) | 1.42 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.41 (#34) | 2.09 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#34) | 0.546 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 42.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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