Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | CIN -185 BAY +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +10 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -0.9 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (-26.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -0.9 (+9.1) | 145.2 (-21.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -1.5 (+8.5) | 146.5 (-22.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -0.7 (+9.3) | 148.1 (-24.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -1.2 (+8.8) | 145.7 (-21.7) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2025 | CIN 69 – 67 BAY |
| Jan 8, 2025 | BAY 68 – 48 CIN |
| Mar 15, 2024 | BAY 68 – 56 CIN |
| Jan 14, 2024 | BAY 62 – 59 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#64) | 11.9 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#92) | 1.59 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#79) | 2.43 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#100) | 0.538 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 39.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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