Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | BAY -300 CIN +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +12 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -4.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (-24.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -2.1 (+9.9) | 145.8 (-21.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -3.3 (+8.7) | 143.5 (-19.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -1.8 (+10.2) | 145.4 (-21.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -2.3 (+9.7) | 146.3 (-22.3) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | CIN 67 – 57 BAY |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CIN 69 – 67 BAY |
| Jan 8, 2025 | BAY 68 – 48 CIN |
| Jan 14, 2024 | BAY 62 – 59 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 22-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 16-5 |
| Away | 4-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 17.3 (#12) | 13.3 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#18) | 1.59 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#18) | 2.13 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#20) | 0.557 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 37.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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