Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | LT -163 LIB +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +4 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | LT -5.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (+24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -2.6 (+1.4) | 132.1 (+23.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -4.4 (-0.4) | 133.9 (+22.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -3.7 (+0.3) | 134.9 (+21.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -3.6 (+0.4) | 133.8 (+22.2) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | LT 76 – 71 LIB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | LIB 72 – 56 LT |
| Feb 7, 2025 | LIB 77 – 53 LT |
| Jan 12, 2025 | LT 79 – 74 LIB |
| Feb 11, 2024 | LIB 65 – 62 LT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 7-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-7 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#89) | 4.9 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#104) | 0.83 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#94) | 1.21 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#93) | 0.533 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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