He took it all too far, but boy could he play guitar. "Ziggy Stardust" - David Bowie
Conference USA · Liberty Arena (VA) · March 6, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread LIB -8.5 Away covered
O/U 136.5 Over
Money LIB -440 / LT +340
Model Predictions
Spread Total LIB win
Actual LT +5 147 Lost
Massey LIB -11.1 (-16.1)
Massey Totals 135.2 (+11.8)
Bradley-Terry 92%
Weighted B-T 94%
Efficiency Plus ML LIB -9.5 (-14.5) 135.8 (+11.2) 81%
Baseline Tuned ML LIB -9.7 (-14.7) 136.8 (+10.2) 83%
Baseline ML LIB -9.9 (-14.9) 136.9 (+10.1) 82%
Baseline Plus ML LIB -9.9 (-14.9) 137.7 (+9.3) 79%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 9, 2026 LIB 7256 LT
Feb 7, 2025 LIB 7753 LT
Jan 12, 2025 LT 7974 LIB
Feb 11, 2024 LIB 6562 LT
Jan 14, 2024 LT 8076 LIB

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LIB LT
Overall 26-8 20-14
Conference 17-3 11-9
Home 14-2 14-3
Away 11-3 4-10
Neutral 1-3 2-1
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 75.8 67.8
Avg Pts Against 72.2 67.8
Massey 3.6 (#114) -4.6 (#238)
Bradley-Terry 1.52 (#69) -0.45 (#220)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.47 (#83) -0.78 (#228)
RPI 0.592 (#33) 0.475 (#238)
Shooting & Four Factors LIB LT
FG% 50.9% 42.0%
3PT% 39.6% 28.1%
REB / G 27.9 37.3
OREB / G 5.2 13.1
AST / TO 1.80 0.90
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 60.2% 46.6%
TOV% 13.9% 19.0%
ORB% 18.2% 35.8%
FT Rate 23.2% 23.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.6% 49.0%
Opp TOV% 17.5% 18.0%
DRB% 67.7% 68.4%
Opp FT Rate 19.2% 25.8%

Game Analysis

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