Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -800 RUTG +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +18 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -13.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -10.3 (+7.7) | 137.2 (-9.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -11.0 (+7.0) | 133.4 (-5.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -11.7 (+6.3) | 135.8 (-7.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -12.3 (+5.7) | 138.0 (-10.0) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | MSU 91 – 87 RUTG |
| Jan 27, 2026 | MSU 88 – 79 RUTG |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MSU 81 – 74 RUTG |
| Feb 4, 2023 | RUTG 61 – 55 MSU |
| Jan 19, 2023 | MSU 70 – 57 RUTG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 15.4 (#16) | 5.9 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#76) | 1.31 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#51) | 1.86 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#85) | 0.562 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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