Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | MSU -6500 RUTG +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +4 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -22.5 (-18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+36.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -16.7 (-12.7) | 142.8 (+35.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -17.3 (-13.3) | 141.7 (+36.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -18.7 (-14.7) | 141.9 (+36.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -17.9 (-13.9) | 141.0 (+37.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | MSU 88 – 79 RUTG |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MSU 81 – 74 RUTG |
| Jan 14, 2024 | MSU 73 – 55 RUTG |
| Feb 4, 2023 | RUTG 61 – 55 MSU |
| Jan 19, 2023 | MSU 70 – 57 RUTG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 6-14 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-7 |
| Away | 6-4 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 20.8 (#11) | 1.3 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.73 (#8) | 0.60 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.63 (#10) | 0.70 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.644 (#6) | 0.499 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 38.4% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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