Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MONT -1000 NAU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +43 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | MONT -15.9 (+27.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -11.6 (+31.4) | 143.7 (-6.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -11.2 (+31.8) | 143.8 (-6.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -13.0 (+30.0) | 144.5 (-7.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -13.2 (+29.8) | 146.0 (-9.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MONT 98 – 72 NAU |
| Jan 1, 2026 | MONT 78 – 64 NAU |
| Mar 10, 2025 | MONT 74 – 65 NAU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | MONT 83 – 80 NAU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | MONT 81 – 76 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 7-5 |
| Away | 8-7 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#141) | -10.3 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#144) | -0.38 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#131) | -1.16 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#94) | 0.484 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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