Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -10000 GTWN +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +13 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -21.9 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -19.6 (-6.6) | 143.4 (+3.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -16.8 (-3.8) | 147.0 (-0.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -17.7 (-4.7) | 145.4 (+1.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -18.8 (-5.8) | 143.6 (+3.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | CONN 67 – 51 GTWN |
| Feb 15, 2026 | CONN 79 – 75 GTWN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | CONN 64 – 62 GTWN |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CONN 93 – 79 GTWN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | CONN 68 – 60 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 2-18 |
| Home | 17-0 | 7-12 |
| Away | 8-3 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 12-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W13 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 17.0 (#12) | -0.9 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.43 (#3) | -0.17 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.24 (#3) | 0.15 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#16) | 0.470 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.1% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 37.7% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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